Drivers of CO₂ Emissions in Brics Countries: A Comparative Analysis Using Stirpat and Ardl Models

Sanjiv Sarkar; B. Mathavan

doi:10.52228/JRUB.2026-39-1-4

Journal of Ravishankar University

Pt. Ravishankar Shukla University, Raipur, Chhattisgarh

PART-B

(SCIENCE)

ISSN: 0970-5910

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Drivers of CO₂ Emissions in Brics Countries: A Comparative Analysis Using Stirpat and Ardl Models

Author(s): Sanjiv Sarkar, B. Mathavan

Email(s): Email ID Not Available

Address: Department of Economics, Faculty of Arts, Annamalai University, Annamalai Nagar, Chidambaram, Tamil Nadu, India – 608002.
Department of Economics, Faculty of Arts, Annamalai University, Annamalai Nagar, Chidambaram, Tamil Nadu, India – 608002.

*Corresponding author: sanjivsarkar885@gmail.com

Published In: Volume - 39, Issue - 1, Year - 2026

DOI: 10.52228/JRUB.2026-39-1-4

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ABSTRACT:
Environmental sustainability has become a pressing challenge for BRICS nations due to rapid industrialization, rising energy demand, and accelerated economic growth. This study examines the determinants of CO₂ emissions in BRICS countries by analyzing the influence of population, affluence, technology, and industrialization. The research problem centers on understanding whether socioeconomic development patterns in these emerging economies contribute to worsening environmental degradation. The study employs the STIRPAT framework and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model using annual data from internationally recognized sources. Unit root testing, panel regression, cointegration analysis, and diagnostic evaluations were conducted to ensure statistical validity and robustness. The empirical findings demonstrate that economic growth is the most significant driver of CO₂ emissions, with strong positive elasticity across models. Technology, proxied by energy intensity, also increases emissions, indicating reliance on fossil-fuel-dependent and inefficient energy systems rather than environmentally friendly innovations. Industrialization shows a consistent positive effect, confirming that manufacturing-driven growth remains carbon intensive. Population growth reveals a smaller but statistically meaningful influence. Cointegration results confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship between emissions and their determinants, while the negative and significant error correction term indicates long-run adjustment after short-run disturbances. The discussion highlights the need for green technological transition, energy efficiency reforms, and sector-specific decarbonization strategies. Policy recommendations include carbon pricing, renewable energy expansion, environmental governance strengthening, and sustainable industrial restructuring. The study concludes that BRICS countries must decouple economic growth from emissions to ensure a sustainable developmental trajectory. Future research should consider sectoral emissions, renewable energy indicators, and nonlinear modelling to deepen insights.

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Cite this article:
Sarkar and Mathavan (2026). Drivers of CO₂ Emissions in Brics Countries: A Comparative Analysis Using Stirpat and Ardl Models. Journal of Ravishankar University (Part-B: Science), 39(1), pp. 61-89. DOI:https://doi.org/10.52228/JRUB.2026-39-1-4

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